Today's BLUF
The think-tank community is driving the conversation this issue, with three substantive analytical pieces reshaping how practitioners should think about Taiwan deterrence, the Iran war's structural dynamics, and U.S. military staying power. Operationally, a $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia advances Gulf security architecture, Houthi forces have reached Bab al-Mandab threatening a new shipping chokepoint, and the IAEA has referred Iran to the UN Security Council for the first time in two decades.
Top Stories
Why Eurasia, Not the Indo-Pacific, Matters Most in Next Phase of Taiwan Deterrence
Ken Moriyasu and William Pazos argue in War on the Rocks, published by the Hudson Institute, that U.S. strategy is focused on the right adversary but the wrong theater. China's accelerating build-out of overland energy and trade corridors through Central Asia and the Caucasus — pipelines, railways, and swing-state diplomacy — is quietly reducing Beijing's vulnerability to a Strait of Malacca blockade, the primary leverage mechanism in most U.S. Taiwan contingency planning. The authors note that China's import data during the current Iran crisis may have constituted a dry run: crude oil imports fell 32 percent in Q2 2026, yet strategic petroleum reserves dropped by only 49 million barrels, suggesting Beijing absorbed the shock through refinery rationing rather than drawdown alone.
The analysis argues that Washington should treat Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan — "swing states" sitting astride China's continental corridors — as strategic priorities alongside partners on the First Island Chain (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines). It also proposes redirecting a portion of the investment commitments secured in trade deals with the EU, Japan, and South Korea toward infrastructure projects in Central Asia and the Caucasus, with Japan's $550 billion commitment as a potential test case. The core argument: if the Indo-Pacific is where a Taiwan war would be fought, Eurasia is where Beijing is deciding whether to fight.
Coverage: Hudson Institute, War on the Rocks
ICE Agent Shoots Man in Austin, Texas, Officials Say
A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer shot and wounded a man Sunday afternoon in Austin, Texas, according to local authorities. Anti-ICE protesters gathered rapidly at the scene following the incident.
Coverage: Al Jazeera English, Washington Post, Washington Times
US Clears Way for $24.3 Billion Fighter Jet Sale to Saudi Arabia
The U.S. Department of State approved the potential sale of Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a package valued at $24.3 billion. The notification marks a significant expansion of advanced U.S. air power in the Gulf at a moment when Saudi Arabia is navigating the fallout of the U.S.-Iran conflict and renewed Houthi pressure along Yemen's Red Sea coast — pressure that has intensified following the Houthis' recent advance toward Bab al-Mandab.
Coverage: Defense News, Military Times
Also in discourse: X.com (@defense_news), X.com (@AirForceTimes)
Explosion Injures 3 South Korean Military Officers Inside DMZ Bordering North Korea
An explosion injured three South Korean military officers inside the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas, officials confirmed. The incident adds to an already tense peninsula where North Korea continues missile testing and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has called for accelerated independent defense capabilities, including nuclear-powered submarines. Crisis Group's On Our Radar tracker this week also notes that President Trump's recent order to scale back joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises has elevated tensions on the peninsula and given Beijing an opening to deepen its own diplomatic engagement with Seoul.
Coverage: Military.com, Stars and Stripes
Iran War
Ten Challenges for the UN in 2026-2027
The International Crisis Group's annual pre-General Assembly briefing finds the UN trapped in an "open-ended crisis" as world leaders convene in New York, with Secretary-General Guterres completing his term amid financial deterioration, paralyzed Security Council diplomacy, and a contested race to choose his successor — with the incoming Secretary-General due to take office January 1, 2027. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has become the Council's defining crisis of the past year: China and Russia vetoed a U.S.-Gulf resolution to authorize a multinational naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Council diplomacy on the file has since stalled. The briefing details ten specific challenge areas including southern Lebanon's post-UNIFIL security vacuum, the Gaza Board of Peace's stalled roadmap, Sudan's worsening humanitarian catastrophe, and a U.S. campaign to dismantle the International Criminal Court that has already prompted Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to withdraw from the Rome Statute. The incoming Secretary-General, to be chosen from eight candidates with Latin America the expected regional turn, faces immediate pressure to rebuild the UN's conflict-prevention credibility and stabilize its finances after the U.S. has paid only a fraction of nearly $4 billion in dues owed.
Coverage: International Crisis Group
On Our Radar
Crisis Group's rolling global conflict tracker highlights several developments directly relevant to the Iran war and its cascading effects. Most urgently, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council on Wednesday for breaching nuclear non-proliferation obligations — the first such referral in twenty years — with analysts warning the move may harden Tehran's position rather than compel cooperation, given that UN sanctions are already in place and China and Russia are expected to block additional punitive measures. Separately, after a month-long lull, the U.S. resumed strikes on Iranian soil over the weekend, hitting rocket launchers on Larak island and dozens of targets along Iran's southern coast; Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Gulf-based U.S. forces. Somalia piracy has ticked up with at least six ship hijackings since April, a direct consequence of reduced naval patrols as assets are diverted to the Gulf. On the Korean peninsula, President Trump ordered a scaling-back of joint military exercises with South Korea and signaled willingness to meet Kim Jong-un, prompting Beijing to deepen its own engagement with Seoul. The tracker also notes China's test-firing of a long-range ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine in the South Pacific — its first such exercise there in two years — which drew sharp protests from Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.
Coverage: International Crisis Group